The Illusion is Getting Weaker
I have been thinking about whether or not the republican base has become afraid of this administration yet. Something I am constantly looking up or asking AI about. Would the right ever realize the danger they are in? Recently, I found that it seemed to actually be happening.
The more I looked, the more the fear showed through. Polling from this fall, introduced a sharp drop in Republican confidence about where the country is headed. Even when approval of Trump among Republicans remains high, “right direction” sentiment inside the party has fallen by dozens of points since early summer. Public blame for the shutdown is no longer landing cleanly on Democrats. They went pretty hard trying to convince everyone, changing the phone lines, the government websites to say everything is down because of the Dems. Many believe this is a breach of the Hatch Act. Several surveys show majorities or pluralities are now assigning significant responsibility to Trump and congressional Republicans as well as to Democrats, which means the one-sided message is not sticking the way it used to.
The federal government is still shut down. Agencies that protect health and safety are working with skeleton staffing. Front-line functions that are not defined as “excepted” are paused. One furloughed FDA employee describes on Senator Elizabeth Warren’s verified TikTok that her unit, which normally answers calls from people with implanted or mechanical medical devices, is closed.
That means a person with a pacemaker or ventricular assist device who needs federal guidance tonight is not going to reach the usual help line. The official language for this is non-essential. The reality is that people who depend on medical technology are left with fewer lifelines during a political standoff. The FDA’s contingency materials and news coverage confirm that many routine call-center and assistance functions are suspended during the funding lapse, even as emergency safety work continues.
At the same time, the White House is having construction. Images and videos live from outside the White House, confirm that the entire East Wing is being demolished to clear space for a very large ballroom project which is being built at the command of President Trump. Reporters and fact-checkers document that this outcome contradicts earlier assurances that the project would be “near” the historic building and “not touching it.” Satellite photos and on-site images now show demolition of the wing in full. The scale and timing are not symbolic only. They are literal. During a shutdown, the part of the Executive Mansion that once housed offices and access to critical facilities is torn down to build a hall for events.
The same slogans keep circulating. “Democrats caused the shutdown.” “This is just a normal renovation.” “Everyone is overreacting.” But the manner of repetition matters. Researchers who have studied political messaging on social media find that a share of automated or semi-automated accounts can generate a very large share of the total volume in contentious moments.
One peer-reviewed analysis of Trump impeachment discourse found that bots were roughly at least one percent of users and yet produced nearly a third of the tweets on that topic. Other research from Oxford shows that during key events, roughly a third of highly active pro-Trump traffic in certain networks can be automated. The lesson is not that every supportive post is fake. It is that automation can inflate the appearance of consensus and drown out uncertainty just when doubt begins to spread. It presents to you the ILLUSION of size, when in reality it is much smaller. for more info check out my last article :
I see that doubt when I read voter-level comments on socials. Some self-identified conservatives defend the demolition as routine work. Some focus on “owning the libs.” Others, including procedural conservatives, ask why so little independent review happened before a historic wing came down and why the cost belongs anywhere near the federal agenda during a shutdown. Those are not the words of confident believers. They are the words of people who still prefer their side but no longer want to defend it. That loss of certainty changes the tone. There appears to be fewer arguments on the facts, more irony, more jokes that permit an exit if challenged. It is beginning to get repetitive and that makes it harder to believe. They know he lies, now. This is exactly what experimental research predicts. When people feel their political identity is under threat, they will share content they suspect may be false because the act of sharing defends the group. (We talked about this a little bit more in my other article.)
The No Kings protests draw crowds in every state. Organizers report more than 7 MILLION PEOPLE participating across roughly 2,700 events on October 18. Independent coverage describes the actions as the largest coordinated protests of the term, with many cities reporting peaceful events and notable local turnouts. The message is uncomplicated. America does not recognize kings. Power belongs to the people. That is not a metaphor when the president demolishes part of the Executive Mansion for a private ballroom during a shutdown. It is a direct response. It’s also very hard for them to see ICE arresting people in silly frog inflatable costumes, they can tell this is not a threat. The protests have really shown the ridiculousness of this administration. How much damage can someone do in an inflatable unicorn costume?
The shutdown is not only a budget dispute. It is a demonstration that government services can be withheld from the public and then explained away as technical housekeeping. I would also like to mention, the East Wing demolition is not only construction, but a message about what matters to this government. It really shows us what their priorities are, and those priorities are not with Americans.
“Both sides lie” this is something I have been hearing from righties lately, and I have to say, it really dismisses the severity of what the right preaches. I have learned to answer that with a simpler truth. If both sides lie, then you were lied to. By telling this to them, I found that the reaction was quite defensive. Shame can keep a person from admitting that someone they trusted lied to them, and modern political language and condescending tone while lying, exploits that emotion relentlessly. But the minute a person recognizes they were deceived, the old slogans lose their force. The ritual of repeating what no longer convinces begins to fade. The ground under the performance gives way. Because it lost it’s luster. It doesn’t feel like hope to them anymore, it’s just another lie. Another disappointment. They expected Trump to fix all their problems, they fought everyone about it, and now they are learning they were betrayed. Think about what they must be feeling, and how that might affect their behaviors.
Here is what the record shows today. The government remains in a shutdown that pauses real services for real people. Federal communications that ordinary families rely on, including assistance lines tied to medical devices, and SNAP benefits are reduced or dark while the funding lapse continues. The White House East Wing is being demolished to build a new fun toy ballroom for Trump to slap his atrocious name on, even as the rest of the government is starved of resources, and while working lower class Americans are starved of food. The manipulation and misinformation online, is amplified by systems of automated bots and fake Twitter accounts. There are several millions of people in the streets with a message that is as old as the republic. No kings will rule in America.
In order for the dam to break, there must first be water. Lots of it. There must be more water than the walls can hold anymore. And eventually…. The truth will flow out, and there will be no turning back. It’s happening. The illusion is no longer as strong as it used to be. Never skip the hopecore.
Sources
FDA and shutdown contingency
U.S. Food and Drug Administration (2025). HHS Contingency Staffing Plan for Operations in the Absence of Enacted Annual Appropriations.
https://www.fda.gov/media/165389/downloadSenator Elizabeth Warren official TikTok (October 2025). Interview with furloughed FDA employee discussing medical device call center shutdown.
https://www.tiktok.com/@elizabethwarren
(Direct video reference: tiktok.com/t/ZP8AvQkKD/)
White House East Wing demolition / ballroom project
The New York Post (October 22, 2025). Entire White House East Wing will be demolished to make way for ballroom as Trump reveals new price tag for the project.
https://nypost.com/2025/10/22/us-news/entire-white-house-east-wing-will-be-demolished-to-make-way-for-ballroom-as-trump-reveals-new-price-tag-for-the-project/Newsweek (October 22, 2025). White House ballroom East Wing renovation demolition: Trump reveals cost.
https://www.newsweek.com/white-house-ballroom-east-wing-renovation-demolition-trump-10915364BBC News (October 22, 2025). White House East Wing demolition under way as Trump announces “ballroom for the people.”
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-67304712
Bot and misinformation research
Stella, M. et al. (2023). Social bots and the impeachment of Donald Trump: Quantifying the impact of automation on political discourse. PLOS ONE, 18(4): e0283971.
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0283971Oxford Internet Institute (2020). A third of pro-Trump tweets are generated by bots.
https://www.oii.ox.ac.uk/news-events/a-third-of-pro-trump-tweets-are-generated-by-bots/PBS NewsHour / Associated Press (May 2023). Thousands of pro-Trump bots are attacking DeSantis and Haley on Twitter, research shows.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/on-twitter-thousands-of-pro-trump-bots-are-attacking-desantis-haley
Political communication and psychology
University of California, Irvine (2024). How polarization drives Republicans to spread misinformation even when they know it may be false.
https://merage.uci.edu/news/2024/09/How-Polarization-Drives-Republicans-To-Spread-Misinformation.htmlBrookings Institution (2024). How disinformation defined the 2024 election narrative.
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-disinformation-defined-the-2024-election-narrative/
Polling and public sentiment
AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research (Oct 2025). Most See the Federal Shutdown as a Problem and Think There Is Plenty of Blame to Go Around.
https://apnorc.org/projects/most-see-the-federal-shutdown-as-a-problem-and-think-there-is-plenty-of-blame-to-go-around/The Washington Post (Oct 2025). Poll: Trump and Congress share blame for shutdown as most Americans disapprove of handling.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/interactive/2025/government-shutdown-trump-congress-poll/
No Kings protests
The Guardian (October 18, 2025). ‘No Kings’ rallies draw millions across the U.S. in largest coordinated protests of the Trump era.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/oct/18/no-kings-protests-millions-rally-across-americaAssociated Press (October 19, 2025). ‘No Kings’ movement sees 7 million marchers nationwide calling for limits on executive power.
https://apnews.com/article/no-kings-protests-trump-2025-7-million-1e3cf44b8d5e46fda62bfa2789d7b7f7NPR (October 19, 2025). No Kings protests fill city centers from coast to coast as shutdown continues.
https://www.npr.org/2025/10/19/no-kings-protests-fill-us-cities-during-shutdown